Blue Track (C-18): Using Climate Forecasting

- Session Description (click to collapse)

Climate change science is now focusing on quantifying the effects of climate variability and change on coupled human and natural systems to identify and evaluate strategies for managing this change and its impacts. This new emphasis on short-term climate forecasting (prediction) and longer-term climate projection is designed to directly support policy- and decision-makers managing finite food, water, and energy resources in the context of a rising global population and GNP coupled with multiple human and environmental stresses. To address critical needs for high-quality climate data information and knowledge in support of national, regional, and local decision-making, climate service operations are being initiated in many countries around the world. These centers will make climate data, information, and knowledge more easily accessible and assessable in a timely manner to broad segments of the public, government, and industry, with trusted evaluation of its provenance, quality, and applicability to those sectors.

  1. Who are the major stakeholders in your domain and what are the primary issues they face? Which of these are climate related?
  2. What are the priority climate research and products needed by your community?
  3. How can barriers to meaningful interaction between information providers and users be brought down?
  4. How does your community deal with risk, uncertainty, and information from other demains?
  5. What is needed to develop "official" climate products, processes and services that your community trusts enough to adopt for decision making?

Recommended Resources

- Moderator (click to collapse)

Lawrence Buja

Lawrence Buja is Director of the Climate Science and Applications Program (CSAP) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. CSAP addresses societal vulnerability; impacts and adaptation to climate change through the use of scenarios of projected climate change; development of tools and methods for analyzing current and future vulnerability; and integrated analyses of climate impacts and adaptation at local, regional, and global scales, with a focus on:

  • Governance of interlinked natural and managed resource systems and their capacity to adapt and respond to climatic variability and change
  • Modeling and analysis of the role of urban areas in driving emissions of climate change, as well as in adapting to climate change impacts
  • Research into the complex relationships among weather, climate, human health and ecosystems, and population to determine vulnerability to human health threats and plan appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies
  • Integrated vulnerability and adaptation assessment, coupling climate change impact research with societal vulnerability frameworks to understand the integrated effects of changes in climate, land use, conventional pollution, biodiversity, and human systems
  • The development of GIS-based data and knowledge systems to foster collaborative science, spatial data interoperability, and knowledge sharing across science and application disciplines to enable broad, climate-informed decision making

Previously, Dr. Buja was scientific project manager for NCAR’s simulations of the Earth’s past, present, and future climates using the NCAR Community Climate System Model that made up the joint U.S. National Science Foundation/Department of Energy submission to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He was a contributing author to both the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (AR3) and the breakthrough IPCC AR4 in 2007.

Dr. Buja also works closely with the World Bank, the InterAmerican Development Bank, and other international agencies applying NCAR’s climate and social science expertise to help guide sustainable development strategies throughout the developing world.

Education:

Ph.D. , Meteorology, University of Utah, 1989
M.S., Atmospheric Science, Iowa State University, 1984
B.S., Atmospheric Science, Iowa State University, 1982

- Notes (click to collapse)

 

Climate forecasting - a number of sessions yesterday but first, we had a demonstration of the polling tool.

Linda Hinnov from JHU on tools to evaluate temperature-CO2 time series relationships

  • this is a tool used to teach signal processing undergrads
  • with climate data, we have common question like mean/mode, trend, frequencies of variation, relationships between time series
  • tools to do basic statistics but also more advanced like spectral estimation, etc
  • online DSP (digital signal processing)tools running on JAVA
  • example - co2 record and temperature record relationship
  • for CO2 - Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii is a usable data set, seasonal cycle for pCO2 is from sea-air exchange and photosynthesis
  • tool cannot det relationship btwn pco2 and long term rise
  • using the Hadcrut3 global temperature record. GSS (space studies.. from Hansen in New York) is another temperature record. Comparing Hadcrut3 and GSS, the record does not go flat but continues to rise.
  • Linear relationship can only be looked at through modeling studies
  • ex CGCM model with Parker/Jones
  • interannual variations - can look at (more so than seasonal) with time series analysis tools. Remove seasonal cycles and removing long term trend to see the variations
  • take both time series, remove seasonal cycles and long term trend, and then look at Pearson correlation coefficient.
  • [live example]
  • can see the El Nino effect, and through cross-correlation, CO2 lags temperature
  • next steps: tutorials, show more of the statistics, more work with additional time series

Questions for discussion

(these are repeated below in the comments section, if reading this later, please reply there)

1. Who are the major stakeholders in your domain and what are the primary issues they face? Which of these are climate related?

BK: organ donation, scarcity of organs, stakeholders gov't, individuals -> Lifestyle issue

NW: stakeholder group is very large includes youth as a driver of change. Use that bundle of energy to effect change. Stakeholders still have a lack of understanding and don't prioritize with the economic situation. There's a role for everyone to be an advocate with personal goals and role-based actions. What is the responsibility of each of the individual groups.

LP: Products developed through funding streams interested in different needs (strategic). products we have are more at the resolution for strategic planning at the nation level, but the people who are making the key decisions need regional or even local. There is a need for actionable information. Problems need to be framed in a way that people can relate to them.

2. What are the priority climate research and products needed by your community?

Brenda - Air quality and providing healthcare without harm, they work with healthcare professionals, hospitals, and they are looking at their impact in terms of energy - priority things are economics of some of the information. If climate/energy issues around coal burning power plants are related to health and what are the numbers. what wil the costs be of not doing anything.

BS: need climate models

CA: climate products at regional/local scales, quantitative estimates of risks of change, given the uncertainty, what is the best way to provide a number or % risk of change

3. How can barriers to meaningful interaction between information providers and users be brought down?

CM: intersection between bringing science to bear and then translating it for actionable govern't  policy. what is the appropriate advocacy policy. Economic and equity issues

SZ: can we be more sophisticated about what we can and can't do. ex: will there be a drought 12mon from now. Time horizon and scale two-way communication needed

EA: stakeholders are people who have to complete hazard plans.develop user friendly interfaces for climate/environment information like turbotax for environmental managers

4. How does your community deal with risk, uncertainty, and information from other demains?

APL- strength

5.  What is needed to develop "official" climate products, processes and services that your community trusts enough to adopt for decision making?

MW: risk/uncertainty from different domains

SY: take issues like risks and provide a systems engineering type approach to solidify the problem/understand it better

??: better emmissions inventories

C?: resource managers looking for air quality, energy information

LH:  Data has a lot to offer if we know what to do with it- as a product, needs to be brought to the fore. Important in communicating with the public - she would like to see more data analysis

Discussion:

LB: is making more available to the public for unexpected reuses

BK: collecting follow up data is difficult in organ transplantation. the whole idea of transparency is complex

LB: in health data there are very strong limitations of what data can be shared

BA: chemical policy issues - greatest need is not for the data, want that available and transparent - need translation of the data in a user friendly way, very dependent on end user comunity and their need. Need information as well as data, in a user-friendly way. Communication has to go both ways.

data > information > knowledge > wisdom

We want the information but it's not your business to tell us how to use it. In post processing do not change a bit. Adds, etc., can introduce computer errors.

SY: quality of the data. how do you assess the quality of the data so that the quality assessment will be accepted. can be a matter of sampling that can be misleading

Funding proposal

Divide into 2 groups to prepare a funding proposal: public health and public policy

funder is the NSF research coordination network program:

SEAS program: science engineering for sustainability

undergraduate biology education

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Public Policy Group Members by Christina.Pikas
Health Focus Group Members by Christina.Pikas
Session Funding Outline by John Schloman
link for the dsp tool by Larry.Paxton
link posted by Giuseppe.Romeo
Data Simulator by Giuseppe.Romeo
trust issues by Larry.Paxton